Looking Back - Were We Right In Our Big Predictions?

Looking Back - Were We Right In Our Big Predictions?
May 12th, 2016 - Phil Anderson


In recent years I have become known for predicting trends and hot spots long before you see them touted in the media or in property magazines.

My team and I think it's important to go "on record" with our thoughts, as opposed to other property market commentators who say "I told you so" without any proof they ever actually told anyone anything!

This week, I'm going to dig through our predictions from recent years, and from there go on record AGAIN as we start "Looking Forward" into the future of the Australian Property Market.

You can quote me on this stuff guys... that's why we're here.

Here's a prime example; Many people were touting Mining Towns like they were the next big thing, I was advising investors to exercise extreme caution and almost begging people not to be fooled by the short term yields because of the high risks involved.

Sadly, many people paid exorbitant amounts for properties that are worth significantly less now the mining boom has turned into a bust in many regions.

In the last 12 to 18 months or so, my 4 primary predictions were;

Even though these were not entirely popular views at the time, they have all come to pass, with two further interest rate cuts in February and May, 2015, bringing our current cash rate to 2.0 per cent.

The unit oversupply has become increasingly prominent in the news in recent months, even though when I first started highlighting this more than a year ago, I was met with some resistance. Now even the RBA is taking the highly unusual move to make mention of the problem with unit oversupply in Brisbane and Melbourne

Regional NSW has continued to shine. Since 2014 we’ve had reports showing Regional NSW now has more growth suburbs than Sydney. It seems other notable Property experts also share this view, with owner and founder of McGrath Real Estate John McGrath stating that ...

And, finally, my prediction that South East Queensland would follow as the next hot spot is becoming increasingly evident. We now have large institutions and research firms such as NAB and BIS also coming out to say Brisbane will be the best capital city for capital growth over the next 3 years (but read this report for my special caveat – this only applies to houses NOT apartments and townhouses in Brisbane)


Melbourne Unit Market to hit 10% vacancy rates
(predicted mid 2013)

I predicted 2.5 years ago that the Melbourne CBD unit market would hit 10% vacancy rates, much to the horror of local investors who thought I was crazy. Fast forward to today and Southbank, once a favoured hot spot of sales agents and the media, currently has a vacancy rate of 11.3%, which equates to 576 vacant properties. Across the Yarra, the Melbourne CBD also has an alarming 883 vacant properties. When I see these numbers, I also see investors who are experiencing pain as they seek tenants to provide much-needed cashflow, so they can hold onto their properties, because selling in these conditions is far less than optimal.

Sydney market the place to buy
(predicted late 2012)

Our focus on the Sydney market 3 years ago has seen investors pick up hundreds of thousands of dollars in capital growth (averaging around 25% growth in that period).

“Grey Tsunami” – Exodus from Sydney to Regional
(predicted late 2013)

I predicted the growth in Sydney would trigger a ‘Grey Tsunami’ of cashed up retirees out of Sydney into key regional locations with major airports, leading hospitals and quality lifestyle facilities. Our focus on select NSW Regional markets over the past 2 years as a result, has seen investors secure hundreds of investment properties in what are now some of the fastest growing property markets in Australia.

The point of this exercise is not about bragging rights. It's about practicing what you preach and being willing to put your name on what you believe

The Autumn edition of my State Of The Nation report has just been released, and it does exactly that. In this report my team and I make further predictions as we are now "Looking Forward" into what our National Property Markets have in store in the years to come. As always, it's 100% free for my readers, so make sure you get your copy now.